This year, over 82 million mail-in and early in-person votes were cast nationwide. Of these, 41% were from registered Democrats and 39% from registered Republicans.
Comparing exit poll data from both 2020 and 2024, we can see notable shifts in voting patterns across key demographics. One of the most significant changes was a 13% increase in Hispanic/Latino support for Trump, rising from 32% in 2020 to 45% in 2024. This shift was especially pronounced among Hispanic/Latino men, where Trump saw an 18% increase. This gain for Trump was mirrored by a drop in Hispanic/Latino support for the Democratic candidate; in 2024, Harris received 12% less support from this group than Biden did in 2020.
In the Black voting demographic, Harris maintained a strong lead, especially among Black women, but Trump made inroads, increasing his support from Black men by about 5.5 percentage points.
This election also revealed an unusual age-based voting shift. Trump gained more support from younger voters, who typically lean Democratic, while Harris made gains among older voters, a group that usually favors Republican candidates. Regarding geography, Trump regained ground among rural voters, who had leaned away from him in the 2020 election. Meanwhile, urban areas continued to vote largely Democratic, and suburban areas remained evenly split.
This election was one with high stakes for both parties and sets the stage for the future of American politics.
Sources:
1) “Early Vote,” NBC News
2) “How Many Electoral College Votes Do the Seven Battleground States Have?” Newsweek
3) “Live Trump-Harris Election Updates,” AP News
4) “How voting demographics changed between 2020 and 2024 presidential elections,” NBC Washington
5) “Anatomy of three Trump elections: How Americans shifted in 2024 vs. 2020 and 2016,” CNN
6) “The key swing states and counties that handed Trump the White House – a visual analysis,” The Guardian
7) “Harris Won The College-Educated Vote—But Trump Gained Young And Latino Voters. Here’s The Breakdown,” Forbes
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